Touch screen for input is ok on a phone but not what we want for a full PC. A full PC should have a touch type keyboard not any touch input without a keyboard. Just look at UMPC's Bill Gates said people will want keyboardless small PC's and that has been a total flop. People do want a PC in their pocket but only if it has a touch type keyboard. They do not want a touch pad, pen input/slate or thumb input device. All of those have been unsuccessful in a full PC and the same goes for voice. Mobile users do not want to talk into a computer due to privacy issues. People just want the same experience and input preference as they have on a standard laptop or dektop. There is no paradigm shift away from that reality.
First you can't apply "Paradigm shifts" to computing interfaces. The Earth goes around the Sun that is a "Paradigm shift" all previously held assumptions were wrong, end of story. Nothing in the history of computing is really a "Paradigm shift" because almost all previously held assumptions about computing technology remain true within their own context or time. There was a time when computers only had keyboards; did the mouse eliminate the need for the keyboard? The rampant popularity of the IPhone is not related to it being an effective phone. The IPhone's popularity comes from the interesting way the interface allows you to access information. The operative word here is "interesting", because any set of hardware buttons could effectively navigate the IPhone software, its the lack of buttons that really grasps human interest, the lack of buttons signifies an infinite interface morphology, even if the current multi-touch applications at hand are lacking, to the consumer, its seemingly infinite potential is what makes it "sexy". The "HP Touch" is really a sad example of HP exploiting a technology rather than a rigorous implementation. The reason multi-touch will prevail is that keyboards & mice can live side by side without the multi-touch impeding in any way. Once all the software applications are in place, who knows maybe one of our legacy contenders may drop out, or maybe one or both of them will simply become a pen?
I think that David and Joel's points, taken together, raise an interesting question:
Is Touch truly a paradigm shift, or is it merely an extension of the existing paradigm?
I would argue that it is merely an extension of the existing paradigm, because it is still 2D and it is still dexterous. As long as those two key facts remain true about the world of PC input, then we're not really talking about revolution, but rather _evolution_.
For that reason, I don't think that Touch will take off in the mainstream. I kind of side with Joel on this one. It does not represent a revolutionizing paradigm shift in the same way that the 3D input that David alluded to would, or the way functional, consumer-level neural impulse input would.
At the same time, there is not as much room for new 2D input methods to make headway in the desktop segment. While I absolutely agree with you, Anand, on the need for a scaled-up iPhone of sorts, I don't see Touch getting huge or even trendy in the desktop sector. I see it being very limited to creative professionals and the like for at least a few years, barring a few experiments. (see: HP Touch)
I mean, look at it this way:
Did grandmas, grandpas, kids, businessmen and techies flock to the Wii, or to the DS? One had 3D input, the other had Touch.
The Wii. Why?
Because the Wii represents a shift in paradigm. Even if much of its technology is completely behind the curve, it still moved people in a way that they had not been moved before. It was totally different, totally fresh and totally exciting. If we are going to see a revolution in PC input that overthrows the keyboard and mouse, it has to be something of that caliber. A true shift in paradigm. Something like David alluded to with his ideas about three dimensional input rings, or something along the lines of my neural impulse input obsession. A true game changer; a killer app.
Until then, I see the Touch apps being very limited to small to mid-sized mobile devices and the odd foray into the desktop.
Even Microsoft has come to terms with the fact that Touch is not going to be "the next big thing" for consumers. Its Surface is not at all positioned to be marketed towards consumers, and we all know that it isn't a sheer matter of cost. I truly believe that the guys running the show when it comes to input and software are hedging their bets on 3D sooner than we can even imagine. Consumer 3D in 5 years, not 10 and not 20.
Dear Asus:
Please put a "TERSE" key on your next uber laptop. It is sorely lacking from this one, as evidenced!
you know what will eventually happen [two decades-ish]? A laptop that looks like a DS, except laptop sized, of course. Two screens, touch. The top one mostly for primary viewing screen, the second for both viewing and touch input.
Forget the new Macbook's buttonless touchpad! This new kind of input laptop would incorporate everything into one giant 'touchpad' that serves as a keyboard and more!
For day to day input I'd like to a very small wearable. think about the Wii: you do actions by gesturing. What about rings worn on each of your index-fingers. You could then use your hands to make gestures (such as the pinching, stretching, flipping you mentioned) but be able to do it in a more relaxed and open way without having to use a hand. You'd also have the use of three dimensions.
Precisely what I believe.That forthcoming displays will be with multitouch interface.But LCD as display tech will be out in 4 years.2009 patents in OLED display tech will expire.I have listened once at one of the inventors behind the OLED tech Mr.prof.Sir Richard Friend from Cavendish College at Cambridge University in UK when he visited Gothenburg Science festival for 5-6 years ago here in Sweden.
He is cofounder of CDT (Cambridge Display Technology) company.And he sad that it would be nice if manufactoring of OLEDs will come in displays before his patents expire in 2099.But now it won´t be like that.
Big companies in display industry dosen´t want to pay licens ofr using a tech like OLEDs.
2009-2010 OLEDs will start to conquere out LCD as displays in most wearable electronic devices.
OLEDs dosen´t need 2-layers of glass, oled have 180 degrees viewing space, it will emit light by it self and it can be on bendable substrate.
OLED displays can be less 1mm thin like Sony and Samsung have demonstrated examples of.
With so thin displays it would be possible to make displays that have display even on outside parts of a Notebook and Netbook so you don´t need to start the whole computer for checking emails etc.
Tad, those are great comments. As a business user I can not see a touchscreen keyboard being very useful compared to a normal touch type keyboard where you can feel the initiation of each key clearly with the movement of the key being depressed. I also dislike touch pads and would favor a touch screen so I can use a stylus or finger only in a pinch. I think people get too focused on a technology like touch screen when it was found great on an Iphone but that does not mean it would be great in other devices.
Touchscreens will certainly come to have a more prominent role, but not for conventional displays all the while finger prints have a part to play. Touchpads on fullsize keyboards have been tried before but never became mainstream. We also need to consider the gamers out there who simply couldn't play "FPS" style games solely via a touchscreen or touchpad instead of a conventional mouse. An office worker using a word processor couldn't use a touchscreen for dedicated input. Like all good technology, applying it correctly, in a suitable environment is the key to it's survival and subsequent success.
Hi this is Moshe
Pleas look at my post.
Comments will be appreciated.
http://www.wepc.com/vote/view/dream/7362/William_Gibson_Cyberspace_Machine
Touch screen for input is ok on a phone but not what we want for a full PC. A full PC should have a touch type keyboard not any touch input without a keyboard. Just look at UMPC's Bill Gates said people will want keyboardless small PC's and that has been a total flop. People do want a PC in their pocket but only if it has a touch type keyboard. They do not want a touch pad, pen input/slate or thumb input device. All of those have been unsuccessful in a full PC and the same goes for voice. Mobile users do not want to talk into a computer due to privacy issues. People just want the same experience and input preference as they have on a standard laptop or dektop. There is no paradigm shift away from that reality.
First you can't apply "Paradigm shifts" to computing interfaces. The Earth goes around the Sun that is a "Paradigm shift" all previously held assumptions were wrong, end of story. Nothing in the history of computing is really a "Paradigm shift" because almost all previously held assumptions about computing technology remain true within their own context or time. There was a time when computers only had keyboards; did the mouse eliminate the need for the keyboard? The rampant popularity of the IPhone is not related to it being an effective phone. The IPhone's popularity comes from the interesting way the interface allows you to access information. The operative word here is "interesting", because any set of hardware buttons could effectively navigate the IPhone software, its the lack of buttons that really grasps human interest, the lack of buttons signifies an infinite interface morphology, even if the current multi-touch applications at hand are lacking, to the consumer, its seemingly infinite potential is what makes it "sexy". The "HP Touch" is really a sad example of HP exploiting a technology rather than a rigorous implementation. The reason multi-touch will prevail is that keyboards & mice can live side by side without the multi-touch impeding in any way. Once all the software applications are in place, who knows maybe one of our legacy contenders may drop out, or maybe one or both of them will simply become a pen?
crlf, anyone?
I think that David and Joel's points, taken together, raise an interesting question:
Is Touch truly a paradigm shift, or is it merely an extension of the existing paradigm?
I would argue that it is merely an extension of the existing paradigm, because it is still 2D and it is still dexterous. As long as those two key facts remain true about the world of PC input, then we're not really talking about revolution, but rather _evolution_.
For that reason, I don't think that Touch will take off in the mainstream. I kind of side with Joel on this one. It does not represent a revolutionizing paradigm shift in the same way that the 3D input that David alluded to would, or the way functional, consumer-level neural impulse input would.
At the same time, there is not as much room for new 2D input methods to make headway in the desktop segment. While I absolutely agree with you, Anand, on the need for a scaled-up iPhone of sorts, I don't see Touch getting huge or even trendy in the desktop sector. I see it being very limited to creative professionals and the like for at least a few years, barring a few experiments. (see: HP Touch)
I mean, look at it this way:
Did grandmas, grandpas, kids, businessmen and techies flock to the Wii, or to the DS? One had 3D input, the other had Touch.
The Wii. Why?
Because the Wii represents a shift in paradigm. Even if much of its technology is completely behind the curve, it still moved people in a way that they had not been moved before. It was totally different, totally fresh and totally exciting. If we are going to see a revolution in PC input that overthrows the keyboard and mouse, it has to be something of that caliber. A true shift in paradigm. Something like David alluded to with his ideas about three dimensional input rings, or something along the lines of my neural impulse input obsession. A true game changer; a killer app.
Until then, I see the Touch apps being very limited to small to mid-sized mobile devices and the odd foray into the desktop.
Even Microsoft has come to terms with the fact that Touch is not going to be "the next big thing" for consumers. Its Surface is not at all positioned to be marketed towards consumers, and we all know that it isn't a sheer matter of cost. I truly believe that the guys running the show when it comes to input and software are hedging their bets on 3D sooner than we can even imagine. Consumer 3D in 5 years, not 10 and not 20.
Dear Asus:
Please put a "TERSE" key on your next uber laptop. It is sorely lacking from this one, as evidenced!
you know what will eventually happen [two decades-ish]? A laptop that looks like a DS, except laptop sized, of course. Two screens, touch. The top one mostly for primary viewing screen, the second for both viewing and touch input.
Forget the new Macbook's buttonless touchpad! This new kind of input laptop would incorporate everything into one giant 'touchpad' that serves as a keyboard and more!
:)
For day to day input I'd like to a very small wearable. think about the Wii: you do actions by gesturing. What about rings worn on each of your index-fingers. You could then use your hands to make gestures (such as the pinching, stretching, flipping you mentioned) but be able to do it in a more relaxed and open way without having to use a hand. You'd also have the use of three dimensions.
Precisely what I believe.That forthcoming displays will be with multitouch interface.But LCD as display tech will be out in 4 years.2009 patents in OLED display tech will expire.I have listened once at one of the inventors behind the OLED tech Mr.prof.Sir Richard Friend from Cavendish College at Cambridge University in UK when he visited Gothenburg Science festival for 5-6 years ago here in Sweden.
He is cofounder of CDT (Cambridge Display Technology) company.And he sad that it would be nice if manufactoring of OLEDs will come in displays before his patents expire in 2099.But now it won´t be like that.
Big companies in display industry dosen´t want to pay licens ofr using a tech like OLEDs.
2009-2010 OLEDs will start to conquere out LCD as displays in most wearable electronic devices.
OLEDs dosen´t need 2-layers of glass, oled have 180 degrees viewing space, it will emit light by it self and it can be on bendable substrate.
OLED displays can be less 1mm thin like Sony and Samsung have demonstrated examples of.
With so thin displays it would be possible to make displays that have display even on outside parts of a Notebook and Netbook so you don´t need to start the whole computer for checking emails etc.
Tad, those are great comments. As a business user I can not see a touchscreen keyboard being very useful compared to a normal touch type keyboard where you can feel the initiation of each key clearly with the movement of the key being depressed. I also dislike touch pads and would favor a touch screen so I can use a stylus or finger only in a pinch. I think people get too focused on a technology like touch screen when it was found great on an Iphone but that does not mean it would be great in other devices.
Touchscreens will certainly come to have a more prominent role, but not for conventional displays all the while finger prints have a part to play. Touchpads on fullsize keyboards have been tried before but never became mainstream. We also need to consider the gamers out there who simply couldn't play "FPS" style games solely via a touchscreen or touchpad instead of a conventional mouse. An office worker using a word processor couldn't use a touchscreen for dedicated input. Like all good technology, applying it correctly, in a suitable environment is the key to it's survival and subsequent success.